Ryo Hisatsune torched Pebble Beach Golf Links with a stunning 10-under 62 Thursday, grabbing the solo lead at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2026 and flipping the pre-tournament narrative on its head. The 23-year-old Japanese star dismantled the iconic coastal layout while pre-tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler (+290 entering the week) limped to an even-par 72, sitting T62 and ten shots off the pace. Sam Burns (63 at Pebble Beach) and Keegan Bradley (63 at Spyglass Hill) share T2 at 9-under, one shot back.
The betting market reacted swiftly. Keegan Bradley moved to +900 at FanDuel as the outright favorite, with Chris Gotterup matching at +900 after his own 8-under 64 at Pebble Beach. Hisatsune sits at +1100 despite holding the solo lead, reflecting the market’s skepticism about his ability to close against this field. The entire pre-tournament odds board has been reshuffled after a Thursday that punished the favorites and rewarded aggressive scoring.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Round 1 Leaderboard
Hisatsune’s 62 at Pebble Beach Golf Links stands as the round of the day, a bogey-free clinic that featured precision iron play on the iconic oceanside holes. His ability to attack pins in Thursday’s manageable conditions (8 mph winds, 60 degrees) created birdie opportunities that he converted with confidence. The course played softer than the Wednesday preview anticipated, opening the door for aggressive scoring rather than the survival-mode golf the early-week forecast suggested.
Sam Burns posted 63 at Pebble Beach to sit one back at T2, his ball-striking creating consistent looks at birdie throughout the round. Keegan Bradley matched that 63 at the typically tougher Spyglass Hill Golf Course, an even more impressive feat given Spyglass’s tree-lined corridors and elevated difficulty rating. Bradley’s round signals the kind of form that makes him dangerous through the weekend rotation.
The T4 group at 8-under features Chris Gotterup (64 at PB), Tony Finau (64 at SH), and Patrick Rodgers (64 at SH). Gotterup’s position is particularly noteworthy - he entered the week riding back-to-back victories at the Sony Open and WM Phoenix Open, and his R1 performance suggests the hot streak is far from over. His current +900 FanDuel odds make him the co-favorite, a dramatic shift from his +3000 pre-tournament price.
The strategic demands at Pebble Beach reward precision from 150-175 yards, the exact distance range that separated Thursday’s leaders from the rest of the field. Players who attacked with confidence posted low numbers, while those who played defensively fell behind early.
Favorites Falter: The Scheffler and Aberg Story
Thursday’s biggest story wasn’t who led but who didn’t. Scottie Scheffler, the overwhelming pre-tournament favorite at +290 with a field-best 3.064 SG:Total baseline, shot even-par 72 at Pebble Beach to sit T62. His elite 1.250 SG:Approach profile simply didn’t translate Thursday, as Pebble’s softer conditions neutralized the ball-striking advantage the model projected. His FanDuel odds ballooned from +290 pre-tournament to +2700 post-R1.
Ludvig Aberg fared even worse, posting a 3-over 75 at Spyglass Hill to sit T77 at +100000 odds. His pre-tournament +2500 price reflected elite form (T2 at Farmers, T3 at The American Express), but Spyglass Hill exposed something in his game Thursday that his recent results hadn’t shown. Aberg now faces a must-make-the-cut Friday to salvage anything from the week.
Rory McIlroy (+1300 pre-tournament, defending champion) shot 68 at Spyglass Hill to sit T28 at 4-under, a solid but unspectacular start that leaves him six shots off the lead. His massive driving distance (+19 yards above average) didn’t create the scoring separation it typically provides, though his current +1700 FanDuel odds suggest the market still believes in his weekend firepower. Xander Schauffele (-3, T39 at Spyglass) also underwhelmed relative to his +2600 pre-tournament price, now sitting at +5000.
The pre-tournament model leaned heavily on strokes gained baselines, but Thursday reminded us that R1 outcomes often reflect who has their timing dialed in that specific week rather than who carries the best 12-month statistical profile.
R1 Surprises and Value Movers
The T11 group at 6-under reads like a who’s who of players the betting market undervalued entering the week. Jordan Spieth (66 at SH, +2700), Rickie Fowler (66 at PB, +4500), and Patrick Cantlay (66 at PB, +2700) all delivered R1 performances that put them firmly in weekend contention. Matt Fitzpatrick’s 66 at Spyglass Hill continues his strong early-season form, now sitting at +1600.
Jake Knapp (66 at SH, +1900) and Russell Henley (66 at PB, +1900) both justified their DataGolf model support with opening rounds that position them as legitimate top-10 threats. Henley’s 0.767 SG:Approach baseline proved predictive of his R1 ball-striking, and his ability to navigate Pebble’s small greens with precise wedge play created the scoring opportunities he needed.
The T19 group at 5-under includes several pre-tournament contenders who delivered acceptable but not dominant R1s: Si Woo Kim (67 at PB, +2500), Tommy Fleetwood (67 at SH, +2200), Maverick McNealy (67 at PB, +3500), and Hideki Matsuyama (67 at PB, +4000). All four remain within realistic striking distance at five back, and Friday’s course rotation could propel any of them into the top 10.
Get the Edge on Every Tournament
AI-powered predictions, data-driven analysis, and expert picks delivered before every PGA Tour event.
Try Golf Agent ProWeekend Outlook: What R1 Reveals About the Path Forward
Thursday’s scoring conditions proved more birdie-friendly than the preview forecast anticipated. The dreaded early-week winds stayed modest at 8 mph, allowing aggressive pin attacks that produced a cluster of sub-65 rounds. Friday’s forecast calls for similar conditions, meaning leaders who posted low Thursday numbers may extend their advantage rather than giving it back.
The projected cut line sits around 1-under to even par based on R1 scoring distribution. Scheffler at even par is right on the bubble, creating a remarkable scenario where the world’s top player and pre-tournament favorite could miss the weekend. His Friday round carries massive implications for both the tournament narrative and the betting market.
The course rotation matters significantly for Friday. Players who tackled Spyglass Hill Thursday (Bradley, Finau, Rodgers all posted 64 or better) now get the more scoreable Pebble Beach layout. Meanwhile, Hisatsune, Burns, and Gotterup rotate to the tougher Spyglass track. How the leaders handle that transition will reshape the leaderboard heading into the weekend.
Gotterup represents the most dangerous player in the field right now. His T4 position at 8-under, combined with consecutive PGA Tour victories and surging confidence, makes him the statistical and momentum-based threat that the +900 odds appropriately reflect. The WM Phoenix Open betting breakdown showed how Gotterup’s elite off-the-tee numbers create scoring opportunities at any venue, and Thursday confirmed that profile translates to coastal golf just as well as desert layouts.
Players to Watch for R2 and Beyond
Keegan Bradley’s +900 odds reflect the market’s belief that his all-around game and Spyglass 63 represent sustainable form rather than a one-round spike. His experience winning in pressure situations (2011 PGA Championship) and comfort level at Pebble Beach make him the most complete threat to Hisatsune’s lead. Bradley’s 63 at Spyglass is statistically more impressive than the 62s and 63s posted at the more scoreable Pebble Beach layout.
Sam Burns at +1100 brings elite ball-striking and recent form that suggests Thursday’s 63 wasn’t a fluke. His approach play from 150-175 yards matches Pebble Beach’s primary scoring zone, and his transition to Spyglass Friday could actually benefit him if the calmer conditions reduce that course’s typical difficulty advantage.
Tony Finau at +2500 represents potential weekend value. His 64 at Spyglass Hill showed the length and iron play combination that makes him dangerous at any coastal venue, and his move to Pebble Beach Friday could produce an even lower number. Finau’s history includes multiple blown leads, which is partially why the market keeps his odds relatively long despite sitting T4.
Nick Taylor (+2000) and Akshay Bhatia (+2500) both posted 65s Thursday to sit T7 at 7-under. Taylor won the 2025 WM Phoenix Open and knows how to navigate multi-course rotations. Bhatia’s aggressive style is perfectly suited to attack mode if Friday’s conditions stay benign.
Get the Full Analysis
Golf Agent Pro delivers real-time odds updates, strokes gained breakdowns, and weekend value plays for every PGA Tour event. The R1 results have completely reshuffled the betting landscape, creating opportunities that the pre-tournament models didn’t anticipate. Download Golf Agent Pro and get the edge before Friday’s second round.
