The betting market at TPC Scottsdale is setting up for a fascinating week. Wednesday’s preview outlined the brutal wind conditions expected for rounds one and two, followed by a weekend birdie-fest that should produce 20-under or better winning scores. Now with full odds available, we’re seeing some massive discrepancies between the sportsbooks and the DataGolf model that create legitimate betting angles.
The most striking market inefficiency involves the favorites. While books have Chris Gotterup at +310 and Matt Fitzpatrick at +840, the model’s top win probability sits with a player priced at +2100. That spread represents the kind of structural advantage that sharp bettors hunt for every week.
This Week’s Betting Landscape
The sportsbook favorite board is led by Chris Gotterup at +310, which aligns reasonably well with the DataGolf model’s 20.0% win probability (implying +400 true odds). Matt Fitzpatrick sits at +840 with an 8.4% model probability, suggesting fair pricing there. The books have clearly identified the tier-one threats based on recent form and course fit.
The mid-tier pricing gets more interesting. Sam Stevens at +1850, Maverick McNealy at +1500, and Nicolai Hojgaard at +1700 represent the young guns with upside. Michael Thorbjornsen at +1425 and Pierceson Coody at +1400 have shown they can win early-season events, making them legitimate contenders on a course that rewards aggressive ball-striking.
The elephant in the room is the top of the strokes gained leaderboard. When you see a player with 3.103 total strokes gained priced at +2100, something doesn’t add up. The books are clearly discounting recent struggles or questioning current form, but the underlying skill metrics tell a different story.
This betting preview breaks down the favorites and longshots for the week, providing context on how oddsmakers are viewing the field. The key takeaway is understanding which players the books respect versus what the underlying data suggests about true win probabilities.
Value Plays: Where the Model Disagrees
The most glaring market inefficiency is Scottie Scheffler at +2100. The DataGolf model gives him a 22.7% win probability, which translates to implied odds of approximately +340. That’s a 560-point difference in plus-money odds, representing genuine value if you believe the model’s assessment of his skill level. His 3.103 total strokes gained leads the field by over a full stroke, driven by elite approach play (1.298) and the best off-the-tee performance (0.928) among contenders.
Cameron Young at +4600 represents another significant model edge. DataGolf pegs his win probability at 3.4%, implying true odds around +2840. The 1,760-point spread is massive for a top-tier ball-striker. His strokes gained profile (1.486 total, 0.502 OTT, 0.451 putting) fits TPC Scottsdale’s demands perfectly, particularly in windy conditions where driving accuracy and approach play matter more than putting volatility.
Hideki Matsuyama at +1850 carries a 3.9% model win probability (implied +2465 odds), making the +1850 price attractive. His 0.711 approach play is elite, and his 0.426 around-the-green work ranks among the field’s best. The concern is his 0.045 off-the-tee number, but Scottsdale’s wide fairways mitigate that weakness.
Viktor Hovland at +4100 with a 1.8% model probability (implied +5455) represents a smaller edge, but his skill profile is intriguing. His 0.806 approach play ranks among the field’s best, and TPC Scottsdale’s premium on iron play could let him overcome his pedestrian 0.278 off-the-tee mark. The question is whether his 0.125 putting holds up under pressure.
Xander Schauffele at +6100 is another notable discrepancy. The model gives him a 4.3% win probability, implying odds around +2225. That 3,875-point spread is enormous for a player with 1.655 total strokes gained and elite approach numbers (0.777). The books seem to be discounting something about his current form that the long-term skill metrics don’t support.
Strokes Gained Breakdown
Approach play is the dominant skill at TPC Scottsdale, and the data bears this out. The top skill-rated players in the field all show elite approach numbers: Scheffler (1.298), Si Woo Kim (0.901), Hovland (0.806), Schauffele (0.777), and Henley (0.769). These are the guys who can attack tucked pins on Scottsdale’s small, elevated greens when the wind calms down on the weekend.
Off-the-tee performance matters more than typical birdie-fest venues because of the early-week wind forecast. Scheffler’s 0.928 OTT mark leads the contenders, followed by Bryson DeChambeau (1.192) and Jon Rahm (0.884). When 25 mph gusts hit Thursday and Friday, the ability to find fairways and control trajectory becomes critical for scoring.
Putting is less predictive this week than approach play, but it still separates tiers. Robert MacIntyre (0.507), Sam Burns (0.584), and Cameron Young (0.451) show strong flatstick work. The greens at TPC Scottsdale are relatively simple compared to Poa annua west coast tracks, so putters who can gain strokes on straightforward reads have an advantage.
Around-the-green play provides a tiebreaker between similarly skilled ball-strikers. Matsuyama’s 0.426 ARG leads the field, followed by Russell Henley (0.291) and Scheffler (0.318). When players miss greens in regulation, the ability to scramble and save par becomes crucial for staying in the tournament, particularly during the windy early rounds.
Key Stats to Watch
Early-week scoring average will identify who handles the wind best. Wednesday’s preview highlighted Thursday-Friday gusts reaching 25 mph, which should separate the field significantly. Players with strong off-the-tee control and the ability to flight irons low will build early leads that carry through the weekend.
Proximity from 150-175 yards is the week’s most predictive stat. TPC Scottsdale features numerous approach shots from this distance, and the ability to consistently stuff wedges and short irons close to tucked pins directly correlates with birdie opportunities. Look for players who rank in the top 20 in this specific distance bucket.
Birdie or better percentage on par-5s will be critical. Scottsdale’s four par-5s (holes 3, 13, 15, and the driveable 17th) are all extremely scoreable when the wind dies down. Players need to average at least 4.5 birdies on these holes across four rounds to contend, which requires both length and precision with wedge approaches.
Strokes gained approach on the weekend versus the field will identify who can capitalize when scoring conditions improve. The model suggests Saturday-Sunday should play significantly easier than Thursday-Friday, meaning the tournament will be won by players who can go low when pins are accessible and winds subside.
This PGA professional breaks down the specific course setup elements that favor certain player types this week. The main insight is understanding how wind direction impacts different holes and which skill sets translate to scoring in variable conditions.
Matchup Analysis
While specific matchup odds weren’t provided, the strokes gained data reveals interesting comparison points. Scottie Scheffler versus any player in the field represents a mismatch based purely on skill metrics. His 3.103 total strokes gained is over a full stroke better than the next-best player, and his across-the-board excellence (0.928 OTT, 1.298 APP, 0.318 ARG, 0.560 PUTT) means he has no exploitable weakness.
Cameron Young versus Viktor Hovland presents an intriguing style contrast. Young’s superior off-the-tee play (0.502 vs 0.278) and putting (0.451 vs 0.125) should give him an edge in variable conditions. Hovland’s approach advantage (0.806 vs 0.396) matters, but not enough to overcome Young’s two-stroke putting edge over 72 holes. The early-week wind forecast favors Young’s more complete game.
Xander Schauffele versus Hideki Matsuyama offers another interesting angle. Schauffele’s off-the-tee advantage (0.542 vs 0.045) is significant, but Matsuyama’s around-the-green dominance (0.426 vs 0.153) provides a counter-punch. Matsuyama’s scrambling ability becomes more valuable when wind forces more missed greens Thursday-Friday. This matchup could come down to weekend putting variance.
Tournament Dynamics and Betting Implications
The two-phase nature of this tournament creates unique betting angles. Players who struggle in wind but excel in benign conditions become live longshots if they can survive the cut. Conversely, grinders who can post even-par through two rounds might find themselves in contention if the leaders stumble when scoring opens up.
The DataGolf pre-tournament predictions show massive clustering after Scheffler. Nine players sit between 1.8% and 3.4% win probability, suggesting the field is bunched behind the favorite. This clustering creates opportunities in the 20-to-1 through 50-to-1 range where small skill edges produce outsized returns.
Course history at TPC Scottsdale matters less than usual this year due to the significant wind forecast. Past performance in calm conditions doesn’t predict success when gusts hit 25 mph. Instead, focus on players with strong wind records at venues like Kapalua, Torrey Pines, or Scottish Open stops where trajectory control and course management separate contenders.
Get the Full Breakdown
This breakdown scratches the surface of what’s available for serious bettors this week. For complete betting cards with model-driven picks, detailed matchup analysis with specific edge percentages, and real-time updates as conditions change, check out Golf Agent Pro. The platform provides the full analytical toolkit you need to find edges across every PGA Tour event.
