Sungjae Im’s -9 lead heading into the weekend at Innisbrook Resort has rewritten the Valspar Championship betting landscape. As our Wednesday preview highlighted, this Copperhead Course test was always going to reward approach play and scrambling - and that’s exactly what we’ve seen through 36 holes. What makes this weekend interesting for bettors is how dramatically the DataGolf model’s probabilities have shifted compared to where sportsbooks are pricing these players.
The cut line settled at +1, eliminating several pre-tournament favorites and creating value opportunities on players who’ve shown the right form at the right time. I’m finding multiple spots where the DG model sees 3-5% more win equity than FanDuel and DraftKings are offering.
This Week’s Betting Landscape
Sungjae Im sits at +300 on FanDuel, and while the books are pricing him as the clear favorite, the model’s baseline_history_fit of +403 suggests the market may be slightly undervaluing his actual win probability. What jumps out to me more is Matt Fitzpatrick at +700 with the model showing +765 baseline_history_fit, indicating the odds are nearly aligned with his expected performance.
David Lipsky at +1000 represents another interesting spot - the model’s baseline_history_fit of +937 suggests he’s priced almost perfectly to his underlying win equity. Doug Ghim at +1300 on FanDuel (he’s +1125 on DraftKings) and Chandler Blanchet (+1200) are both sitting at -7, and while the books are pricing them similarly, the model gives Ghim a baseline_history_fit of +1311 versus Blanchet’s +1268.
The bigger discrepancies appear further down the board. Jacob Bridgeman sits at +1500 on FanDuel (he’s +1750 on DraftKings) with a +2330 model win probability - suggesting significant value at the FanDuel price. Brooks Koepka at +1800 on FanDuel with a +3161 baseline_history_fit looks like a fade to me. The books are giving him too much credit for his name value after a solid R1-R2 showing.
Xander Schauffele’s +2700 FanDuel price (he’s +3100 on DraftKings) with a +1168 model win probability is another spot where I’m not buying what the sportsbooks are selling. He made the cut comfortably at -2, but his SG:APP through two rounds suggests he’s not gaining the edges needed to close a seven-shot gap on this course.
Value Plays: Where the DataGolf Model Disagrees
The most compelling model edge I’m seeing is Matt Fitzpatrick. His +700 FanDuel odds compared to the +765 baseline_history_fit suggest he’s priced almost perfectly, but when you look at his live SG:APP of +2.74 through two rounds and his 77.8% GIR rate, the model might actually be underrating him. His only weakness has been putting (-0.27 SG:PUTT), which is noise over 36 holes.
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David Lipsky at +1000 versus his +937 baseline_history_fit is another spot where the delta works in a bettor’s favor. He’s gained +2.96 strokes putting through two rounds and posted a ridiculous 94.4% scrambling rate. The approach work has been mediocre (-0.30 SG:APP), but at Copperhead, scrambling can mask ball-striking weaknesses if you’re making putts.
Jacob Bridgeman represents a similar value play at +1500 on FanDuel (he’s +1750 on DraftKings). The model’s +2330 baseline_history_fit suggests significant value, especially at the FanDuel price. His +2.04 SG:APP and 75.0% GIR rate through two rounds fit exactly what this course demands.
Alex Smalley at +2000 on FanDuel (he’s +1850 on DraftKings) with a +2342 baseline_history_fit is priced close to fair value, but his live tournament stats show +1.71 SG:APP and balanced scrambling (71.4%). I like this number as a small play because of his consistent ball-striking profile.
The fade I’m most confident in is Brooks Koepka at +1800 on FanDuel (he’s +1750 on DraftKings). The model’s +3161 baseline_history_fit suggests he should be priced much longer. Yes, he’s posted +2.79 SG:APP through two rounds, but his -1.17 SG:ARG is a disaster for a course where scrambling matters.
Strokes Gained Breakdown
The live tournament stats from R1-R2 confirm what the course fit analysis predicted - approach play and putting are driving separation at Copperhead. Sungjae Im leads the field in SG:PUTT at +2.50 and has gained +2.29 strokes approach. That combination is nearly impossible to beat over 72 holes on a course this demanding.
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Matt Fitzpatrick’s +2.74 SG:APP is the single best approach number in the top 10 on the leaderboard. His 77.8% GIR rate backs that up. The putting has been neutral to slightly negative (-0.27), but that’s exactly where you want variance to regress positively over the weekend.
What’s interesting is how poorly some players are gaining off the tee despite solid positions. Billy Horschel sits at -3 after posting -1.55 SG:OTT through two rounds, but he’s gained +2.19 strokes approach to compensate. Tony Finau’s -0.84 SG:OTT at -4 overall tells a similar story.
The guys who are blending balanced gains across all categories are the ones I’m targeting for matchups. Doug Ghim (+0.27 OTT, +1.29 APP, +1.29 ARG, +1.39 PUTT) is gaining everywhere without a major weakness. Jordan Smith (+1.19 OTT, +1.34 APP, +0.84 ARG) has a similar profile, though his -0.13 SG:PUTT suggests some regression risk.
Scrambling percentage is the hidden stat separating contenders from pretenders this week. David Lipsky’s 94.4% scrambling rate is absurd and unsustainable, but even regressing to 70% keeps him in the hunt. Jacob Bridgeman’s 61.5% scrambling rate is concerning given his -0.55 SG:ARG, which suggests he’s missing greens in the wrong spots.
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The R3 pairings offer several exploitable matchups based on the DataGolf model’s head-to-head odds. Keegan Bradley (+109) versus Lee Hodges (+141) is a spot where I’m taking Bradley. The model gives him a slight edge, and his even par position through two rounds undersells his +0.86 career SG:Total baseline. Hodges is at even par as well, but his course fit and form don’t suggest he can separate on the weekend.
Denny McCarthy (-115) versus Justin Lower (+176) is another matchup where the favorite makes sense. McCarthy sits at even par after the cut, and his +0.72 career SG:Total baseline should translate to better weekend rounds. Lower’s +176 price suggests the model sees a blowout potential, and I’m inclined to agree given McCarthy’s superior approach play profile.
Ryo Hisatsune (-133) versus Webb Simpson (+204) is the most lopsided weekend pairing from a model perspective. Hisatsune sits at even par and has course history equity at Copperhead (finished T4 in 2025). Simpson’s +204 price tells you the model thinks he’s completely outclassed. Hisatsune’s 1.05 predicted SG for this course versus Simpson’s lower baseline makes this a strong DG model lean.
The Chad Ramey (-113) versus Kevin Roy (-124) matchup is interesting because the model actually favors Roy despite both sitting at -1 through two rounds. Ramey’s -0.06 career SG:APP creates a ceiling issue on a course this approach-dependent. Roy’s superior ball-striking should give him the weekend edge if the model is right.
One three-ball matchup worth watching is Keegan Bradley (+109) versus Lee Hodges (+141). The model gives Bradley the edge, and his scrambling ability (career strength) fits the weekend grind better than Hodges’ profile. Both are at even par, so this is essentially a coin flip with better than coin flip odds on Bradley.
R1/R2 Recap and Weekend Storylines
Sungjae Im’s R1 64 separated him from the field early, and his R2 69 was professional - no blowup holes, steady ball-striking, elite putting. His -9 total gives him a two-shot cushion over David Lipsky, whose R2 65 was the day’s best round. As the R1 recap from THE PLAYERS showed with Maverick McNealy’s early lead, first-round fireworks don’t always hold - but Im’s profile suggests staying power.
The cut line at +1 eliminated several notable names. Viktor Hovland, the defending champion, missed badly. Taylor Pendrith and Sahith Theegala, both top-15 DataGolf model picks pre-tournament, also failed to advance. That opened up the field for mid-tier players like Doug Ghim and Chandler Blanchet, who are now T3 at -7.
Matt Fitzpatrick’s -5 position might be the weekend’s most interesting storyline. He opened with 68-69 and never posted a round in the 60s, yet his ball-striking is top-three in the field. If the putter heats up even slightly, he’s the most dangerous player on the board from a pure skill perspective.
Jacob Bridgeman’s -4 sitting T10 validates the pre-tournament model’s faith in him. His baseline_history_fit of +2330 suggests he was undervalued coming into the week, and his weekend form might exceed expectations.
The surprise contenders are Chandler Blanchet (-7) and Marco Penge (-5), neither of whom appeared in the pre-tournament top-20 predictions. Blanchet’s +2.13 SG:APP is elite, and his +1.99 SG:PUTT gives him two hot tools. Penge’s +2.22 SG:PUTT is carrying his mediocre approach work (+0.82), which creates fade potential if the flatstick cools.
Xander Schauffele’s -2 position T27 is disappointing given his +1168 model win probability - among the strongest in the field. His +0.51 SG:APP through two rounds isn’t gaining the edges his baseline suggests, and his +1.86 SG:PUTT is masking ball-striking issues.
Key Stats to Watch
Scrambling variance will dictate who moves Sunday. David Lipsky’s 94.4% scrambling rate cannot sustain - regression to even 75% costs him two shots per round. Jordan Spieth’s 66.7% scrambling rate at -3 suggests he’s missing greens in makeable spots, which could unlock birdie runs if he tightens approach dispersion.
Par-4 scoring on holes 1, 5, 11, and 14 (the four hardest holes this week) will separate contenders. These holes are averaging between 4.69 and 4.83 strokes through R2, meaning anyone making pars consistently gains a stroke per hole on the field. Im’s -0.15 SG:OTT suggests he’s not bombing it past trouble - he’s playing smart positional golf.
Putting on Bermuda greens tends to show increased variance on weekends as traffic wears in. Players with positive SG:PUTT baselines (Matt Fitzpatrick, Jacob Bridgeman) should see regression toward their career norms, which benefits Fitzpatrick significantly given his -0.27 through two rounds.
The wind forecast for Saturday and Sunday will matter more than most weeks. Copperhead’s tree-lined fairways punish offline drives, and wind amplifies dispersion. Players with elite SG:OTT accuracy (David Ford at 65.4% fairways hit, Matt Fitzpatrick at 57.7%) have an edge if conditions toughen.
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