Robert MacIntyre sits at -14 through 36 holes at TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course, carrying a four-shot cushion over Ludvig Aberg into the weekend. What makes this lead fascinating from a betting perspective is how dramatically the DataGolf model’s probabilities have shifted compared to the pre-tournament landscape. As Mike Buttler outlined in our Wednesday preview, the wind conditions and course setup favored ball-strikers with strong approach games. MacIntyre has delivered exactly that - his +3.21 strokes gained on approach through two rounds leads the field by over a shot.
The cut line settled at -2, meaning 75 players made it through to the weekend. Several pre-tournament favorites failed to advance, while longshots like Kevin Roy and Bud Cauley sit inside the top five at -9.
This Week’s Betting Landscape
The sportsbook odds tell a clear story: MacIntyre opened the week as the DataGolf model’s third-favorite at 4.5% win equity, well behind Tommy Fleetwood and Aberg. Now he’s -118 on FanDuel to win outright, which translates to implied probability around 54%. The DataGolf model’s updated in-play predictions show MacIntyre at 53.3% win equity - an extremely rare instance where the model and market align almost perfectly.
Aberg sits at +500 on DraftKings (16.7% implied) with 12.3% DataGolf win equity. That’s a slight overvalue from the books, though not massive. What jumps out to me is Tony Finau at +1700 (5.6% implied) versus 4.1% DataGolf equity. The model suggests he’s actually slightly overpriced given his -9 position and four-shot deficit.
The longshot territory gets interesting. Thorbjorn Olesen at +1800 (5.3% implied) shows 3.6% DataGolf equity, making him the biggest overvalue among the co-leaders at -9. Bud Cauley at +2400 (4.0% implied) versus 3.3% model equity tells a similar story - the sportsbooks are pricing these players as if they have more equity than the model believes.
Value Plays: Where the DataGolf Model Disagrees
I’m not buying the market’s assessment of several players near the top of the leaderboard. The most glaring discrepancy is Thorbjorn Olesen, where sportsbooks are giving him a 5.3% implied chance to win at +1800 while the DataGolf model sees only 3.6%. That’s nearly 50% more equity than the data suggests. Olesen’s +0.89 SG:OTT and -0.28 SG:APP through two rounds show he’s leaning heavily on short game and putting (+1.44 SG:PUTT). That profile rarely holds up over 72 holes on a demanding ball-striking course.
Tommy Fleetwood at +2250 (4.3% implied) versus 3.0% DataGolf equity presents another clear overvalue from the books. Fleetwood entered the week as the model’s co-favorite but has posted just +2.58 SG:Total through 36 holes, including a concerning -0.92 SG:ARG. His pre-tournament predicted SG of +1.51 assumed positive course fit, but the live performance suggests he’s struggling with TPC San Antonio’s specific demands.
On the flip side, Robert MacIntyre at -118 represents fair value. The market implies 54% win equity, the model shows 53.3% - that’s about as tight as you’ll see. What interests me more is where the model sees players underpriced relative to their position. Ryo Hisatsune at +2500 (3.8% implied) shows 2.4% DataGolf equity, making him slightly overvalued, not undervalued as the longshot number might suggest.
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Try Golf Agent ProThe matchup markets reveal sharper edges. The DataGolf model projects Thorbjorn Olesen vs Ludvig Aberg at +139/-139 (even money when accounting for juice), but sportsbooks are offering Olesen at +135 and Aberg at -160. That’s a massive skew toward Aberg that the model doesn’t support. Both players sit at -9 or -10, but the books are treating Aberg’s position as significantly stronger than Olesen’s despite only one shot separating them.
Strokes Gained Breakdown
MacIntyre’s dominance stems from ball-striking excellence. His +3.21 SG:APP leads the field by more than a full stroke, and his 75% greens in regulation rate matches that elite iron play. What separates him from the chase pack is consistency across all categories - he’s positive in every strokes gained metric. His +1.13 SG:OTT shows solid driving, while +1.39 SG:PUTT means he’s not relying on one hot element to maintain the lead.
Aberg’s +4.08 SG:Total splits very differently. His +1.06 SG:OTT and +1.63 SG:APP show strong tee-to-green play, but the massive +1.19 SG:ARG number reveals he’s been exceptional around the greens. That scrambling element (80% success rate) can be volatile. His +0.20 SG:PUTT sits well below MacIntyre’s putting performance, which could be critical if Sunday brings pressure.
The players at -9 show telling patterns. Tony Finau’s +1.58 SG:PUTT is carrying his scorecard - his +0.70 SG:APP and +0.97 SG:OTT are solid but not elite. Kevin Roy leads all players with +2.68 SG:APP but has posted -1.09 SG:PUTT, essentially playing perfect iron golf while struggling badly on the greens. That profile screams regression candidate, either positive if the putter heats up or negative if the approaches cool even slightly.
Bud Cauley’s +2.18 SG:APP and +0.77 SG:PUTT show a more balanced profile than Roy, though his 53.6% driving accuracy suggests he’s finding greens despite wayward tee shots. Alex Smalley’s 58.3% GIR rate paired with +1.40 SG:PUTT and 88.2% scrambling shows he’s manufacturing birdies through short game magic rather than ball-striking dominance.
The live hole difficulty data reveals which parts of the course are separating players. Hole 2 (par 5) has played to 4.826 average with just one eagle all week - the field is treating it like a par 4.5. Hole 8 (par 5) shows similar resistance at 4.817 average. Meanwhile, the par-3 16th is playing to 2.848 with 35 birdies, making it a must-birdie hole where bogeys prove devastating.
R1/R2 Recap and Weekend Storylines
Robert MacIntyre’s 66-64 start has him at -14, four clear of Aberg’s -10. As Jackson Matthews noted in our PLAYERS R1 recap, early-week scoring can create separation that becomes insurmountable. MacIntyre has done exactly that at TPC San Antonio.
The most surprising storyline after two rounds is the cluster at -9. Kevin Roy entered the week outside the DataGolf model’s top 20 favorites but has gained over 3.5 strokes through 36 holes. Bud Cauley’s similar position represents one of the week’s biggest overperformances. Both players face significant pressure to maintain these positions against proven tour winners.
Tommy Fleetwood’s -7 position (T13) qualifies as a mild disappointment given his co-favorite status entering the week. His +2.58 SG:Total ranks 13th in the field, exactly matching his leaderboard position. There’s no statistical edge suggesting he’s playing better than his score indicates.
The cut at -2 claimed several notable names. Jordan Spieth barely survived at -2, making the weekend but needing significant improvement. Hideki Matsuyama sits at -5, six shots back, with his 75% GIR rate suggesting the irons are working but the putter (-0.06 SG:PUTT) has cost him contention status.
Mark Hubbard posted an interesting split - his opening 65 was followed by struggles that dropped him to -2 (made cut). Matt McCarty’s 74 in R1 dug a massive hole despite recovering with better play Friday. These players represent the volatility inherent in TPC San Antonio’s setup.
Matchup Analysis
The Eric Cole vs Sami Valimaki matchup on DraftKings shows Cole at -115 versus Valimaki at -105. The DataGolf model projects this at -110/+110 in Cole’s favor, making Valimaki’s slightly plus-money offering interesting. Both players sit at -5, seven shots back of MacIntyre. Cole’s +1.58 SG:Total through two rounds edges Valimaki’s identical score position, but the model sees Cole as the slight favorite based on profile fit going forward.
Billy Horschel vs Zach Bauchou at -125/+105 presents another tight market. The DataGolf model shows -111/+111, suggesting Horschel is slightly overpriced. Both sit at -5 or -6 with limited win equity, making this matchup purely about positioning for top-20 or top-10 finishes. Bauchou’s +1.38 SG:PUTT and 64.3% driving accuracy show a player finding greens and making putts - that’s a recipe for steady weekend play.
The most interesting weekend pairing from a betting perspective is Jordan Spieth, Robert MacIntyre, and Ludvig Aberg teeing off at 8:06 AM Saturday. Spieth sits at -2 (barely made cut) while MacIntyre and Aberg occupy first and second. The DataGolf model projects Spieth at +209 (implied 32%), MacIntyre at +194 (implied 34%), and Aberg at +198 (implied 34%) - essentially viewing this as a three-way coin flip for who shoots the lowest round despite the massive score differential. That’s the model recognizing Spieth’s baseline talent even while acknowledging his current deficit.
Key Stats to Watch
Approach play separates contenders at TPC San Antonio. The top five players in SG:APP through R2 are MacIntyre (+3.21), Roy (+2.68), Cauley (+2.18), Putnam (+2.13), and Fleetwood (+1.98). Four of those five sit inside the top 13 on the leaderboard. The only exception is Fleetwood, whose -0.92 SG:ARG has cost him three strokes around the greens.
Putting volatility will determine Sunday outcomes. John Parry’s +1.65 SG:PUTT leads the T7 group at -8, but his 66.7% GIR rate means he’s making everything while missing greens regularly. That’s unsustainable. Conversely, Kevin Roy’s -1.09 SG:PUTT while gaining 2.68 strokes on approach represents the flip side - elite iron play being wasted by cold putting.
Scrambling rates show who’s surviving mistakes. Thorbjorn Olesen’s 94.1% scrambling through two rounds is the field’s best, enabling his -9 position despite 66.7% GIR. Chris Kirk’s 90.5% scrambling with just 50% GIR shows another player manufacturing birdies through recovery shots. These percentages rarely hold over 72 holes - regression is coming for someone.
The par-5 scoring split matters. Holes 2 and 8 are playing nearly a half-shot over par, while traditional birdie holes like the par-3 16th are giving up birdies at high rates (35 through R2). Players who can convert the par-3 opportunities while avoiding bogeys on the resistant par-5s will climb the leaderboard. MacIntyre’s ability to score on both hole types has built his four-shot lead.
Get the Full Breakdown
I’ve highlighted where the DataGolf model sees the clearest discrepancies between sportsbook odds and projected performance, but there’s deeper analysis available. For those looking to understand how outright, top 10, and matchup bets work in golf betting, Golf Agent Pro delivers complete betting cards with model-driven picks, live strokes gained updates, and matchup edges for every PGA Tour event. The app synthesizes this data into actionable recommendations rather than raw numbers.
