Gary Woodland sits at -13 through 36 holes at Memorial Park, and the betting markets are reacting accordingly. The veteran has opened as the +240 favorite on DraftKings heading into the weekend, but I think the DataGolf model sees this tournament differently than the sportsbooks. As our Wednesday preview highlighted, Memorial Park rewards ball-striking consistency and course history, and several players lurking just off the lead fit that profile better than their current odds suggest.
The cut fell at -2, and we’ve got a loaded weekend ahead with multiple European Tour standouts and proven winners positioned to make a run. What jumps out to me immediately is how the live strokes gained data from R1 and R2 reveals some surprising names gaining significant ground in specific categories while their outright odds haven’t adjusted accordingly.
This Week’s Betting Landscape
The favorite board tells an interesting story. Woodland at +240 makes sense given his three-shot cushion, and the DataGolf model’s baseline odds of +236 essentially confirms the market has him priced efficiently. Where I see real separation is further down the board.
Nicolai Hojgaard sits at +440 on FanDuel while the DataGolf baseline odds suggest +501 represents fair value. The books have him slightly underpriced relative to the model’s assessment. The real intrigue starts with Min Woo Lee at +480 on FanDuel. The defending champion trails by four shots, and the DataGolf model shows baseline odds of +555, suggesting the current market price offers value. Lee gained +1.01 strokes off the tee through two rounds and ranks 4th in total strokes gained at +3.73. His course history here is exceptional, and Memorial Park’s emphasis on approach play and wind management plays directly into his skill set.
Jason Day at +900 on DraftKings presents another interesting case. The model’s baseline odds of +1703 suggest the books are significantly underpricing him. Day has gained +2.20 strokes putting through R1/R2, the 5th-best mark in the field, and his +1.43 SG:APP ranks 5th as well.
Value Plays: Where the Model Disagrees
The most glaring model discrepancy I found is with Sam Stevens at +1650 on DraftKings. The DataGolf model shows baseline odds of +2209, suggesting Stevens is underpriced relative to his skill profile and current position. Stevens ranks T6 at -8 and has been surgical with his irons, gaining +1.89 strokes on approach through two rounds, the 7th-best mark in the field. His +0.84 SG:OTT gives him the length to attack Memorial Park’s scoring holes.
Adam Scott at +2500 catches my attention as well. The model’s baseline odds of +3201 suggest he’s underpriced by the books. Scott trails by six shots but has the pedigree and ball-striking form to close that gap. He’s gained +0.79 strokes on approach and +1.02 putting through R1/R2, and his experience in wind at courses like Royal Melbourne translates beautifully to Houston’s conditions.
This breakdown from NineToFive Golf covers the DFS and betting angles for the week, including some interesting outright plays that align with what the strokes gained data is showing us.
Jake Knapp at +3100 on DraftKings represents another model edge. The DataGolf baseline odds of +3411 are relatively close to market, but his model top-10 odds of +419 suggest he’s a strong value play for place positions. Knapp sits at -6, seven back of Woodland, but his approach play has been consistent (+0.34 SG:APP) and he’s gaining +0.70 off the tee.
Sahith Theegala at +5300 on DraftKings looks like a significant overlay. The model’s baseline odds of +5191 are slightly lower than the market price, suggesting he’s properly valued or even slightly overpriced at current odds. However, Theegala gained +1.44 strokes around the green through R1/R2, the best mark among players at -6 or better. His scrambling ability at 84.6% gives him a safety net if his ball-striking wavers on the weekend.
Strokes Gained Breakdown
The live tournament stats reveal what’s actually working at Memorial Park this week. Approach play has been the separator. Gary Woodland leads the field with +3.00 SG:APP through two rounds, nearly a full stroke clear of Jackson Suber’s +2.34. Michael Thorbjornsen (+1.95), Sam Stevens (+1.89), and Jason Day (+1.43) round out the top five in that category.
What’s fascinating is how little off-the-tee play has mattered. Keith Mitchell leads the contenders at +1.19 SG:OTT, but most of the leaderboard sits between -0.20 and +0.85 in that category. Min Woo Lee gained +1.01 off the tee, which gives him an edge for weekend scoring, but accuracy matters more than raw distance. Lee’s 57.7% fairway accuracy through R1/R2 is solid, though not spectacular.
Putting has separated the leaders from the pack more than I expected. Gary Woodland’s +2.85 SG:PUTT is nearly three-quarters of a stroke better than anyone else at -7 or better. Jason Day’s +2.20 and Paul Waring’s +2.79 (despite sitting at -6) show how much the greens are rewarding confident strokes. Sam Ryder gained +2.69 putting through two rounds but lost -1.14 on approach, which explains why he’s seven back despite the hot flatstick.
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Try Golf Agent ProAround-the-green play has been critical for scoring. Nicolai Hojgaard leads the contenders with +1.71 SG:ARG through R1/R2. Sahith Theegala (+1.44), Matt Wallace (+1.30), and Sam Ryder (+1.54) have scrambled their way into contention despite inconsistent iron play. Memorial Park’s bentgrass rough punishes offline approach shots, so the ability to get up-and-down becomes essential on the weekend when pin positions tighten.
Matchup Analysis
The weekend pairings offer some compelling matchup opportunities. I like Sam Burns over Kurt Kitayama in their Saturday pairing. The DataGolf model shows Burns with baseline odds of +3597 compared to Kitayama’s +3431 for the win, suggesting relatively similar overall skill levels. Through R1/R2, Burns is at -3 while Kitayama hasn’t cracked the cut line statistics provided.
Chris Gotterup looks like a strong play in his Saturday grouping. Gotterup’s baseline odds of +3219 suggest the model views him favorably among the players positioned just outside contention. His baseline strokes gained projections show solid course fit, and the model clearly favors him in matchup situations.
Harris English versus Davis Riley presents another intriguing spot. English’s baseline odds of +5364 suggest moderate win equity, while his underlying ball-striking metrics project well for Memorial Park’s demands. English’s ball-striking consistency gives him the edge on a course that demands precision.
R1/R2 Recap and Weekend Storylines
Gary Woodland opened with a 64 on Thursday and followed with a blistering 63 on Friday to grab a three-shot lead at -13. The veteran has been flawless with his irons, leading the field in SG:APP at +3.00 through 36 holes. His putter has caught fire as well, with +2.85 SG:PUTT separating him from the field. Woodland’s only victory since 2019 came at this event in 2025, and Memorial Park clearly suits his eye.
Nicolai Hojgaard sits T2 at -10 after rounds of 68-62. The Dane gained +1.71 strokes around the green through R1/R2, the best mark among contenders. His Friday 62 featured surgical wedge play and confident putting. Jackson Suber shares second place after 67-63, gaining +2.34 on approach, the second-best mark in the field behind only Woodland.
Min Woo Lee opened the defense of his 2025 title with 68-63 to reach -9. The Australian gained +1.01 off the tee through two rounds, giving him the length advantage heading into the weekend. Jason Day matched Lee’s -9 total with rounds of 68-63. Day’s putter has been exceptional, gaining +2.20 through R1/R2.
The cut fell at -2, claiming several pre-tournament favorites. The weekend setup favors ball-strikers who can control their approach shots in the wind. Hole 16 played as the toughest on Friday at 4.731 strokes, with just six eagles recorded all day. The par-3 9th played as the easiest at 2.970, offering birdie opportunities for players who dial in their wedges.
Key Stats to Watch
Approach play will determine this tournament. Through R1/R2, the top-10 players in SG:APP are almost exclusively inside the top 20 on the leaderboard. Memorial Park’s greens reward precision, and the players gaining strokes with their irons have separated themselves decisively. Gary Woodland’s +3.00 SG:APP through two rounds is nearly a full stroke better than the field average among contenders.
Scrambling percentage matters more than I initially expected. With the cut falling at -2, players who made the weekend had to navigate Memorial Park’s bentgrass rough effectively. Vince Whaley’s 88.9% scrambling through R1/R2 kept him at -5 despite ranking just 52.8% in greens in regulation. Michael Thorbjornsen’s 90.9% scrambling rate through two rounds suggests he can hang around the lead even if his iron play regresses slightly.
Wind direction will be critical on Saturday and Sunday, as our guide on course history in golf betting emphasizes. Memorial Park plays significantly differently depending on wind direction, and the forecast shows shifting conditions. Players with proven wind experience hold a distinct edge. Min Woo Lee’s European Tour background and Adam Scott’s international experience give them an advantage over players who primarily compete in American conditions.
Putting velocity on Memorial Park’s bentgrass greens has separated confident putters from hesitant ones, and understanding the key strokes gained metrics helps explain why. Gary Woodland’s +2.85 SG:PUTT and Jason Day’s +2.20 show how much the greens reward aggressive strokes. Paul Waring gained +2.79 putting through R1/R2 despite sitting seven back, which suggests he could make a weekend charge if his approach play tightens.
Get the Full Breakdown
The DataGolf model sees significant value in several players whose odds haven’t adjusted to their R1/R2 performance and course fit. For complete betting cards, model-driven picks, and real-time matchup analysis throughout the weekend, check out Golf Agent Pro. The app provides proprietary predictions and confidence scores for every PGA Tour event, giving you an edge the sportsbooks don’t want you to have.
