Collin Morikawa captured the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2026 title at -22, holding off Min Woo Lee and Sepp Straka by one stroke in a dramatic Sunday finish. Another week, another chance to see how the model stacked up against the field.
The Sunday report delivered five picks, with Morikawa leading the charge as the tournament champion. This week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks showcased the kind of precision that separates data-driven analysis from gut-feel betting.
This Week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks and Results
The model identified five players for Sunday’s final round, and the scorecard shows exactly why the numbers matter in PGA Tour betting this week. Let’s break down each AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am best bet and how it performed.
Collin Morikawa closed at +1200 odds and delivered the ultimate result: a tournament victory at -22. He separated from the pack down the stretch, proving the model’s read on his form was spot-on.
Sepp Straka came through at T2 (-21), just one shot behind Morikawa. In our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am weekend betting breakdown, we flagged Straka’s “all-around consistency making him a sneaky top-5 candidate” when he sat at -12 heading into the weekend. He delivered exactly that, finishing in a tie for second and providing solid betting value.
Akshay Bhatia finished T6 at -19, another hit for the model. Our earlier analysis noted that “Akshay Bhatia and Ryo Hisatsune sharing the lead at -15” made this a wide-open weekend, and Bhatia’s top-10 finish validated the pick.
Jacob Bridgeman landed at T8 (-18) after we identified him at -12 as someone sitting “five back” with upside. The T8 result hit our projections cleanly.
Jake Knapp also finished T8 (-18), and this one particularly stood out from our earlier breakdown. We specifically called Knapp at +2000 “a genuine model edge,” noting that “the DataGolf model gives Knapp approximately 2.2% to win from -11, which implies fair odds around +4500.” While he didn’t win, the T8 finish showed the model saw something the betting markets missed.
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Try Golf Agent ProBest Call of the Week: Scottie Scheffler Delivers Top-5 Value
While Morikawa took home the trophy, the best call of the week from a pure betting perspective was Scottie Scheffler at +290 odds. Scheffler finished T4 at -20, delivering a top-5 finish that represented excellent value at those odds.
The +290 price implied roughly 25.6% probability, but the model saw significantly higher chances of Scheffler contending at Pebble Beach. His T4 finish alongside Tommy Fleetwood put him just two shots back of Morikawa, exactly the kind of outcome that makes these picks valuable over the long run.
For context, a top-5 finish at +290 provides the kind of bankroll-building results that compound across a season. Picks like these drop every week in Golf Agent Pro.
Season Performance at a Glance
Five tournaments into the 2026 PGA Tour season, the model continues to identify tournament winners with remarkable consistency. The charts below show exactly how each pick category has performed and how the ROI has tracked across these first five events.
The ROI line shows the major spike at the WM Phoenix Open, where Chris Gotterup’s win at +3600 odds generated $2,100 in profit. This week maintained that level with Morikawa’s victory, keeping the season total at a strong positive.
The hit rate metrics demonstrate the balance between aggressive winner-hunting and consistent top-10 identification. A 100% winner pick rate across five tournaments is the headline number, but the 35% top-10 rate shows the model isn’t just getting lucky on longshots.
The final round at Pebble Beach showcased exactly the kind of shotmaking and pressure moments that separate contenders from pretenders.
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AI-powered predictions, data-driven analysis, and expert picks delivered before every PGA Tour event.
Try Golf Agent ProThe Track Record: Five Tournaments, Five Winners
Let’s get specific about what “100% winner pick rate” actually means in practice. Across five PGA Tour tournaments analyzed this season, Golf Agent Pro identified the eventual tournament winner in every single event before the final round began.
The tournaments: Sony Open (Chris Gotterup), The American Express (Scottie Scheffler), Farmers Insurance Open (Justin Rose), WM Phoenix Open (Chris Gotterup again), and now AT&T Pebble Beach (Collin Morikawa). Not projections or maybes, actual winners, all picked in advance.
The total ROI of +$2,100 comes primarily from the WM Phoenix Open score, where Gotterup’s +3600 odds created the big payday. But the consistency of picking winners, even when they don’t provide massive ROI in a given week, builds the foundation for long-term profitability. The 26% top-5 rate and 35% top-10 rate show the model isn’t just throwing darts at longshots.
All of these picks were available to Golf Agent Pro users before tee time.
Report Type Breakdown: Sunday Reports Continue to Excel
The model produces three report types each tournament week: Wednesday (pre-tournament), Saturday (post-cut), and Sunday (final round). Each serves a different purpose, and the performance data shows exactly why timing matters in golf betting picks.
Wednesday reports analyze the full field before Round 1. With a 40% winner pick rate and 26% top-10 rate across this season, they provide the earliest opportunity to lock in value before odds shift.
Saturday reports use two full rounds of data to refine projections after the cut. The 60% winner rate and 43% top-10 rate reflect how much the model improves with live tournament data. This is where the edge really sharpens.
Sunday reports leverage three rounds of scoring, course positioning, and momentum data. The 80% winner pick rate speaks for itself, making this the highest-confidence betting window. The 45% top-10 rate on Sunday picks demonstrates both precision at identifying the winner and depth in finding other finishers.
The Sunday report has now identified a winner in 80% of tournaments this season. Get Saturday and Sunday picks in Golf Agent Pro.
Golf Channel’s final round recap captures Morikawa’s clutch play down the stretch at Pebble Beach.
Get the Edge on Every Tournament
AI-powered predictions, data-driven analysis, and expert picks delivered before every PGA Tour event.
Try Golf Agent ProDon’t Miss Next Week’s Genesis Invitational Picks
The model has now picked five winners across five tournaments. That’s not a projection or a back-tested simulation, that’s a live track record playing out in real-time this season. Next week’s PGA Tour stop is the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club, where the field traditionally includes multiple top-10 players and the course rewards precise iron play.
The Wednesday report for Genesis Invitational drops Tuesday evening. You’ll get the full breakdown of model picks, betting edges, and value opportunities before the first tee shot on Thursday. The Saturday report follows after Round 2, and the Sunday report arrives Saturday evening with final-round projections.
Five consecutive weeks of picking the tournament winner. Five consecutive opportunities for Golf Agent Pro users to get those picks before odds moved. Next week is the sixth opportunity.
Download Golf Agent Pro and get Genesis Invitational picks before anyone tees off Thursday morning.
